ATP / Wimbledon ATP1/64-finals
Finished| Player | Set 1 | Set 2 | Set 3 | Set 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yannick Hanfmann ✓ | 6 tiebreak 6 | 7 tiebreak 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
 Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 7 tiebreak 8 | 6 tiebreak 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Prediction incorrect
Yannick Hanfmann and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard meet in the first round of Wimbledon on Monday in a five-set grass-court clash. The market heavily favours the Frenchman. His massive serve has been nearly untouchable on this surface this season. Hanfmann holds a slight edge in their only previous meeting, but the conditions here point towards a very different dynamic.
Hanfmann holds narrow rivalry edge
The two players have met just once, with Hanfmann taking a hard-court victory in Chengdu two years ago. That match went to a deciding set. Mpetshi Perricard dominated the serving statistics in that encounter, though Hanfmann managed to edge the overall games count.
Head-to-head
Ahead of this matchHanfmann Y.Mpetshi Perricard G.
- Head-to-head wins
- Yannick Hanfmann: 1 (better value)Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 0
- First-serve points won
- Yannick Hanfmann: 79%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 84% (better value)
- Second-serve points won
- Yannick Hanfmann: 77% (better value)Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 40%
- Return points won
- Yannick Hanfmann: 28% (better value)Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 22%
- Break points converted
- Yannick Hanfmann: 33%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 50% (better value)
- Break points saved
- Yannick Hanfmann: 50%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 67% (better value)
Mpetshi Perricard's serve dominates on grass
The Frenchman has been exceptionally difficult to break this grass season, winning an astonishing 96% of his service games while converting nearly 40% of his break-point chances. Hanfmann has posted a solid 3-3 record on the surface. However, his service hold rate sits noticeably lower at 88%.
Recent grass runs offer contrasting momentum
Mpetshi Perricard arrives with strong momentum after reaching the final of a grass-court qualifying event in London just last week. Hanfmann has endured a more mixed time, suffering early exits in Mallorca and Halle after securing initial victories. Both players share an identical 4-6 record over their last ten matches overall, yet the Frenchman's recent results on this specific surface are far more encouraging.
Bookmakers lean heavily towards the Frenchman
Bookmakers price Mpetshi Perricard at 1.62 against Hanfmann at 2.30. The first-set market also strongly favours the Frenchman to take the opening frame at 1.73.
Player statistics
Ahead of this matchHanfmann Y.Mpetshi Perricard G.
- Matches
- Yannick Hanfmann: 10Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 10
- Matches won
- Yannick Hanfmann: 40%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 50% (better value)
- Titles
- Yannick Hanfmann: 0Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 0
- Aces per match
- Yannick Hanfmann: 9.5Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 15 (better value)
- Double faults per match
- Yannick Hanfmann: 2.9Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 2.5 (better value)
- First-serve points won
- Yannick Hanfmann: 79%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 79%
- Second-serve points won
- Yannick Hanfmann: 52% (better value)Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 51%
- Return points won
- Yannick Hanfmann: 31% (better value)Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 30%
- Break points converted
- Yannick Hanfmann: 23%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 31% (better value)
- Break points saved
- Yannick Hanfmann: 65%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 72% (better value)
Serving strength meets tactical experience
This matchup hinges almost entirely on service dominance and break-point conversion. Mpetshi Perricard's ability to hold serve effortlessly on grass puts immense pressure on Hanfmann to produce a flawless return display. With both men sharing similar fatigue levels and deciding-set win rates, the player who controls the short points will likely dictate the five-set contest.
Prediction
PICKGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard
62%Win probability
The data points clearly towards Mpetshi Perricard, driven by his exceptional grass-court serving numbers and recent momentum on the surface. While Hanfmann has the head-to-head victory, that came on hard courts. His current form on grass lacks the same sharpness. The Frenchman's ability to win nearly all his service games makes him a highly probable winner in this opening round.
